2026 Mexico Open best bets and sleepers for Vidanta Vallarta. Get a FREE Betsperts Golf subscription with your first ReBet deposit and code BSG: https://bit.ly/4xcCKC7 The VidantaWorld Mexico Open moves to the fall for the first time, Thursday, October 29 through Sunday, November 1, on Greg Norman's par-71 Signature Course just north of Puerto Vallarta. It's a long, wide paspalum track with little rough and driver on almost every hole, so the setup favors bombers who can handle long approach shots. Wyndham Clark heads the board, Doug Ghim went from +3100 to +1850 at DraftKings in a single day, and defending champion Brian Campbell is back after his playoff win over Aldrich Potgieter. This Mexico Open betting guide breaks down the course fit, the favorites, and the sleepers worth a look further down the odds board.
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0:00 - Mexico Open preview and the fall move
3:28 - Vidanta Vallarta course and the favorites
6:31 - Bombers, iron play and fall conditions
13:03 - Model leaders: Clark, Keefer, Suber
16:54 - Full card: Keefer, Penge, Blades Brown
24:30 - Clark plus bombs: Salinda, Shipley
29:10 - DFS plays: Ghim, Roy, Bezuidenhout
34:22 - Rebet deal, cut line tool and the wrap
2026 Mexico Open Betting Guide: Best Bets and Sleepers
Everyone, welcome in. Betsperts Golf here for the twenty twenty-six Mexico Open. We haven't been here in a while. It's been about eighteen months or so, Andy, because this has moved from a spring event to a fall event. So for the first time, I guess, we get to relive the disaster of Brian Campbell stealing one of the best possible community wins we could have had. We were about to have a communal eighty to a hundred to one Potgieter win, and Brian Campbell snatched that from all of us. How we doing, bud?
Yeah, Potgieter was looking good until he wasn't. He did pay us back later. I had him in his other win. I was terrified that Sunday, because it wasn't just Brian Campbell playing well. Potgieter kind of poo-pooed and pee-peed a little bit. So not great, but a fun tournament. And yes, it's a different time of year, but I don't know that it's going to make that big of a difference considering the differences in the temperature and the weather. I kind of looked into this. I'm not very concerned about that little rerouting of the course. They made a cool par three that's more of a stadium hole, apparently. And I don't know that enough has changed for me to really change my thought process here, because in the long run it is just a resort course with very generous fairways where guys can go bombs away.
People have struggled with proximity here, a little bit, relative to other easy courses like this. But if you get yourself a bomber who is above average with irons, he's just going to get to eighteen under by accident here, and that's going to put him in the mix. And it is going to be low scoring. It's going to be another twenty to twenty-five under kind of winner. We're probably going to play all seventy-two holes this week. There does look to be some weather coming in on Thursday, but for now things are looking pretty decent there on the coast of Mexico.
I don't know. It's kind of just running it back with the guys I would like here, based on models I built for this. Honestly, sometimes I pull up old models for similar courses, and I pulled up my WWT model from last year, because what is that, El Cardonal?
Yep, we're going there next week. Very comp course. There's going to be a lot of overlap between guys I bet this week and guys I bet next week. The only reason I wouldn't is if they were injured or they don't play next week. Some of the guys I like next week are going to be the guys I like this week.
Going over the course real quick. Longish par seventy-one, Greg Norman design. I haven't talked about him for a while. Greg Norman with LIV in the news. Vidanta Vallarta. Brian Campbell, as we mentioned, won this last year in a playoff. The market loves Doug Ghim. Doug Ghim is getting his number hammered for some reason. I know he's played well lately, but this is still a full field, and it's still Doug Ghim, guys, so maybe calm down. I hope he wins.
I agree, it's puzzling. He's been great, but yeah, I was surprised to see that price for sure. There were like thirty-three to ones to start the week, and people just hammered it.
Fifth straight year at Vallarta, first fall edition, Paspalum everywhere. Long, wide, and very little rough, honestly. Driver comes out almost every hole. Misses are not punished much. Approaches will run long. You're going to have a lot of one seventy-five to two twenty-five for your approach shots. Proximity has been hard. But like I said, the guys who can bomb it will have more like one fifty to two hundred rather than one seventy-five to two fifty, and if they hit their irons well, they're going to score well here.
As I mentioned, the course was renovated a little, and also rerouted. They redid the seventeenth, that par three, and made it more of a fun viewer hole. I think the fourth is longer. There are a couple of adjustments to a few holes. But again, it doesn't change the core bones of this course, where it's driving distance, strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained approach, birdie or better rate, and greens in regulation. If you want to go putting on Paspalum, fine. If you want to throw in comp courses, I mentioned El Cardonal, and Black Desert probably as well. The big difference there is wayward shots are very much punished, but it has a similar kind of feel as far as how you're going to score and who's going to do well.
Other winners here: Jake Knapp, Tony Finau, and Jon Rahm won this in twenty twenty-two. I don't think he's in the field this week. I will double check that. We mentioned Clark is your favorite. Tom Kim and Doug Ghim are kind of in that second range. And then James, Griffin, Penge. Marco Penge. Johnny Keefer, Corey Conners. Some Mexican players playing in their own country will be Alvaro Ortiz, Santiago de la Fuente, Omar Morales, and Mauricio Figueroa.
It's so wild that we had a Brian Campbell, Aldrich Potgieter playoff, because that was the tortoise and the hare, man. No disrespect to Brian Campbell, who is significantly better at golf than I am. Multi-winner. But we are not wildly different off the tee, which is such a crazy thing to say considering what has been rewarded here in the past. You look at previous winners and previous contenders, what has taken the top ten and top twenty here, and for Brian Campbell to do what he did, it was pretty impressive. I guess that's the way I've come to emotionally deal with that loss.
Yeah, it's crazy because he's so short. So I would start there again. I wouldn't just look at driving distance and eschew everything else, but you kind of should start there. You should be able to separate and gain off the tee through distance, and like you said, there's such little penalty for wayward drives. There's a decent amount of water, and that is in some of the corollary courses too, if you look at CC of Jackson and Trump Doral, where wayward drives could be punished with water danger. But in terms of fairways hit, not a big deal. So it's just absolute send it here and then figure it out.
For me it's really simple. Plus driving distance. Are you above average, or in good form recently, with your approach shots? Do you lean a little bit better than field average on longer approach shots, in that one seventy-five plus bucket, like you said? And do you have spike putting upside? Because that's it. Like you said, we need to chase the upside. We're going to need a low score relative to par to win. So it's not an overly complicated handicap, but I actually do think it's directionally correct. Even if you feel like, hey, I'm landing on some names that are pretty popular, I think it's probably for a reason. I'd be surprised if we don't have a relative community win again. I just feel like one of the chalk bombers does pretty well and gets over the finish line. Not a crazy difficult handicap, to be honest.
No. And if it isn't a bomber, it's somebody who's middle of the pack in driving range. The secondary thing that can get you across the finish line, as you mentioned with Brian Campbell, is just being a good golfer in a bad field. If Corey Conners wins this, I'm not super surprised. Corey Conners is absolutely middle of the pack for distance. He's not short, but he's not long. But he's also probably the best irons player here, or one of them. He's top five. Same thing with Tom Kim. Tom Kim is maybe even below average off the tee for distance, middle of the pack at best. But again, super strong irons, especially compared to this field, and a good enough putter.
I don't know that Ben James counts. His distance isn't terrible. And then if you want to throw it all together, and this is why he's a prohibitive favorite, there's Wyndham Clark, who's top twenty in driving distance, top ten in approach, top ten in fairway proximity, and also an above average putter who can spike putting too. This is why he's the favorite. I talked to Ryan off the air and said I may just take some Wyndham Clark and then find two or three bombs on some guys I like based on some of the skill position stuff. We saw it with Potgieter, where it's like, hey, the guy's not doing a lot yet, but maybe he can get there because he's got this distance and we feel good about him.
And then there are some guys who have just played well here, like Andrew Novak. He's played real well here a couple of times. He kind of popped up in my stuff. Again, he's middle of the pack in some of this stuff, but he's a pretty big number, where it's like, eh, I could take a fifty to one on somebody like this.
Yeah, I'm just interested to see if it plays any different at all with the move to the fall, but I agree with you. It sounds like you don't think it's going to, and I probably don't either. I did also consider Wyndham Clark. I don't mind clicking Wyndham Clark, especially in the fall, just shooting at the top of the board, if it makes sense. He's definitely the best player in the field. That's the problem I have with the Doug Ghims and even the Ben James price. And I say Tom Kim, because Tom Kim is close. But Clark wins golf tournaments. Major winner, multiple-time winner, at places that reward driving distance. LACC, Shinnecock Hills, where you were having to gain and separate off the tee. So yeah, I wouldn't blame anyone.
That secondary tier of guys at twenty-five to one and shorter, it's tough. It's really hard to differentiate between those ten names and decide which one is going to care and play well. I did do a little looking into differences we might see because of playing in the fall, and some of the weather. It might not just be the fall, but based on how the weather is right now and how it's been, we're looking at hot, humid, and soft. That's the feel people are giving me for what we're looking at, based on the time of year we're playing this. And if it is playing a little softer, some of these guys who are seriously good with approach shots, great with their long irons, are going to throw some darts. I did look at Paspalum putting, and even just putting in general, and didn't see strong correlations to guys who finished high here. Obviously it's hard every week to use putting, but I kept that out of the model for now.
Yeah, I joked about the Doug Ghim thing and then modeled, and he came out tops, because again, it's hard to argue with his recent form, which I thought was funny. There's just nothing bad here. The tough part is modeling Wyndham in particular in this field, because if you want to really adjust for field strength, not a lot of these guys are playing in the tournaments he's playing in. And when you filter down for courses that have plus distance and easy scoring conditions, you start to get into a situation where you're dealing with maybe eight to twelve rounds over twelve months. It becomes a very noisy sample. So I'm using the model this week as a guide, because there's no reason Wyndham Clark shouldn't be at the top. He's getting penalized, essentially, for being the strongest player in the field, because he's playing against Scheffler and Rory and the top guys all the time, whereas not all these guys were for the majority of twenty twenty-six. So it's a little tricky in the modeling.
Yeah. Trace Crowe wasn't considered for the Presidents Cup. Trace Crowe pissed me off last week. Lost a matchup.
I know he's high on mine as well. And it's funny, I don't have a model completely built yet. I'm still using my WWT one, which is going to be very similar. But using that and just plugging in the VidantaWorld Mexico Open golfers, it's Wyndham Clark number one, obviously. But Keefer for me is number two, and Kim number five. So a lot of the same names you have at the top of yours are floating to the top of mine, even though I'm using the WWT. Some other interesting names to me. I did have a little bit of three-putt avoidance in there, which maybe I'll throw out. But if you do want to throw that out, Jackson Suber is very interesting here to me. I know he kind of falls into that range where his price isn't super big, but he's another one where it's like, man, you're going to throw some darts this week.
Have you made any bets? Are you still flirting with the Wyndham and bombs?
Still flirting. I'm almost committed to it at this point. We're just going to be trying to find a thirteen to one on Clark somewhere. Maybe it's a prediction market. Maybe it's one of these offshores. I don't shop as much. We'll see what we can get. And then probably Keefer's too rich for my blood. His putting is a little struggly at times. I've looked at Austin Eckroat. Another one where it's like, hey, pretty good irons, pretty good proximity when he's hitting from the fairway, good on the longer irons, decent driving distance, and honestly kind of a great putter at times. Doug Ghim's much too expensive for me. Who else popped up? Some of the youngsters. Blades Brown is probably a little expensive, considering. I don't know if I can picture him actually taking this thing down, and his driving distance isn't super good. Ben James, another one where it's like, love him, love his fit, kind of expensive. Don't know if I can do that. Here's one that maybe you'll like. Luke Clanton.
Yeah, I bet Luke Clanton last week, and he played pretty well. His distance has kind of lagged behind a little bit. I have him in the middle. I want to make that click, but I went somewhere else in the middle. I made five bets. I got a full card.
Oh, run through them. Let me know what you got.
I just sat here and let you disparage a few of them, just biting my tongue.
Oh no. Was that talking to me?
Not really, though. But I did bet Johnny Keefer, second in my model. I got twenty-nine to one on Kalshi, which I thought was more than fair. I was seeing twenty-two to ones at domestics. I think I saw some twenty-five to ones there at the open, but almost thirty I thought was more than fair. He's played pretty well recently. He's got a couple of nice showings, and again, he grades out really well for me on long irons, and driver heavy spots are where his best finishes are. He's got two T10s or better this fall in his past three starts, and he's got a T3 at the Scottish and at Houston. Again, bomber heavy spots like that. The putter is actually gaining him almost half a stroke over his last twenty-four rounds, so he's been getting a little bit better with the putter. Again, he modeled well, and obviously you see the double dip of blending carry distance and driving distance. He popped pretty well for ball striking in spots like this, where it's driver heavy. I liked him quite a bit.
I also took the plunge on Marco Penge at a little over thirty to one, on another prediction market. I think DraftKings has actually moved up to thirty-two. Again, driver heavy, good form. He's played five times this fall, with four T20s or better across the world. He's been playing a bit in Europe. Coming into this year I thought this was going to be a Marco Penge type course, and he just had a bad year, I think because he was injured early, got off to a rough start, and was moving over from Europe and trying to assimilate and do all those different things. I think it's going to be a good twenty twenty-seven for him, especially on courses like this, in weaker fields like this. Penge is a decent play.
I did the last add when I started to look a little bit more into Blades Brown. I took the dip at thirty-five to one. Second last time out, at the Korn Ferry Tour Championship. Four T9 or better finishes in his past eight starts. He's been fine. He's just always in the mix. When you look at his actual player page, he's bouncing back between the two tours. Didn't win anything all year, but he was never out of it. He was just always there, T20s, a couple of times T10s. So I just feel like that's a kid who's ascending, and everything else is pretty good. So that's the top of the board for me, those three: Keefer, Penge, and Blades Brown.
And then my two longer shots. Your boy Rico Hoey.
He's been a little bit better lately.
He's been a little better. Let's look at Rico. The putter was always bad, but the ball striking has kind of come back, because the ball striking dipped a little bit. Rico's been good. Now, the putter is a disaster. You can see this big red line. But look, the ball striking has come back, and look what he's done lately. T10 at Utah. Bermuda's not a good spot for him, where he hits less than driver a ton. T15 at Wyndham. He's been mixing it up a little bit. This is better than it was for most of the summer, when there were a bunch of missed cuts. So I took some Rico.
Big bomb, two hundred to one: Ryder Cowan. You'll like this one, Andy. Ryder Cowan won the Second Swing Gopher Invitational last month.
Okay, that sounds like a Minnesota event, right?
Ryder Cowan, I think, is fourth or fifth in the amateur rankings right now. I think he tied Jackson Koivun for low am at the U.S. Open, another spot where driver heavy is in play. Ryder Cowan has just continued to play really good golf in college for the Sooners after his showing there at the U.S. Open. I think he's a kid who's going to be making a name for himself on tour in the next couple of years, similar to Keefer and Blades Brown. So I'm just going with the young bomber crowd here. That's all. Everyone's in pretty good recent form, so I'm leaning on form bombers. And I like the Ryder Cowan finishing position bets. Two hundred to one is a tall, tall ask, but I sprinkled there. And that's my five-man card.
Yeah, the Second Swing Gopher Invitational, of course, is held at Windsong Farm. If you're familiar with Minnesota golf, it's a pretty nice private course that's not in the Twin Cities. Most of the big ones are in the Minneapolis, St. Paul area. It's not far from there. It's a Tom Lehman designed course. Pretty nice course.
Yeah, he does kind of help out with some of the design up here. What do you do when you retire from golf, if you don't want to play a bunch of Champions events? You either go on TV or you go design golf courses.
Or you just go play a bunch of golf, because you made a bunch of money. He won a British Open. He's fine.
And he's pitching insurance? He goes and plays the father son event in December as well. He's got it figured out. He's got an ad that runs on Golf Channel all the time. I forget what it is.
He's my favorite Minnesota golfer. Can you name anyone else from the North Star State who played on tour? I'll give you a hint. He's fat.
This is offensive to probably anyone.
Anyone you guess now. And he's not on tour anymore.
Gosh. Is Craig Stadler from Minnesota?
Wow. You'd call Craig Stadler fat?
I can't imagine. Again, this is a no-win situation for me. I just have to try to think of fat older golfers. It's not fair. It's not nice.
Timothy Daniel "Lumpy" Herron. Tim Herron.
Tim Herron, okay. Tim Herron was a high-rim visor guy, wasn't he?
Yes, absolutely. He won the Honda Classic, which is the Cognizant now, and he's one of only two players to ever defeat one Eldrick Woods in the U.S. Amateur, beating him in the second round, which is wild.
That's a good win. Some of these guys, their amateur careers are just crazy.
It's funny, my DFS fades are like Keefer, Brown, Mac Meissner, and some of it is just pricing. Keefer at ninety-five hundred in DFS is rough. David Ford is eighty-eight hundred for some reason in DFS. He is by far my weakest model rating for guys in the top twenty salaries. That's just a fade.
Yeah, Wyndham Clark is probably a DFS fade. I don't know how you like your lineup when you're spending ten-nine on a guy. Real quick, some guys I liked as I built a model. Isaiah Salinda. Somebody I took in a matchup last week, and I've liked him a bit. He finished T11 at Butterfield. Didn't do very well at Bank of Utah. I think he was a little wayward. I've got to go look into that, but he's somebody I've definitely looked at.
T3, I think, last time when we were here.
Yeah, a little hit or miss, but he has played well here in the past. He was T18 at Butterfield last year. I've got to go look at where he was at Mexico. He's played well in some of these lesser fields, and he's going to be a decent size number. So Isaiah Salinda modeled well. When I redid my model just now, I used driving distance, overall proximity, fairway greens in reg, fairway proximity, and then some one seventy-five to two hundred plus scoring opportunities inside fifteen feet, which has actually turned out to be a little bit of a predictive stat. And Trace Crowe came out number one. Jackson Suber two. Doug Ghim, Ben James, and Isaiah Salinda round out that top five. Clark, I don't think I need to tell you, I didn't put a baseline "how good are you at golf" strokes gained total anchor stat in there, otherwise he'd have shot up.
Neal Shipley is somebody who's interesting to me again, a little bit, because he's just playing better golf. When he had that moment in Butler Cabin, it was like, man, this might be the one time we ever see this guy, because it's felt like he's not that good.
No, it didn't feel like he was that good right after that. It was like, all right, this guy just played out of his mind one time. But he has really come around, from this summer on.
He won low am at Pinehurst, at the U.S. Open, a couple of months later. Yeah, he's legit.
But yeah, he's been great, especially in the fall. Third in Asheville, tenth at Utah, a decent finish last week. Somebody I've looked at. Chan Kim keeps popping. I don't know what that is. That's just like a course history thing, plus he played well at Bermuda, and he's like a hundred and thirty to one. Chan Kim might make the card. Let's see how he modeled for me here. He was somebody who popped up in something else, where it's like, I guess we're making Chan games now.
His driving distance is terrible. So he's going to be the one where it's like, if he doesn't do it with the long irons, that's the cross off for me. I can't. I think it's just a non-starter for me.
Yeah. When you rank a hundredth in the field in driving distance, maybe you're a cross off for me. So I haven't made any bets, but it is going to be Wyndham Clark on the card, and then I'm going to find a couple of long shots.
What's the price on Suber? Probably not as long as you want it to be.
No, he'd be kind of in that secondary range. Another one withdrew, which makes sense. For some reason I had him in the field, and he's definitely not. So I will find some long shots. I'll post about them on Twitter, but for me, it's going to be Wyndham Clark and some bombs. If they're long enough, maybe some tops. I'll have some matchups I'll figure out as well.
Kevin Roy is somebody who's kind of getting bandied around this week.
The lost Roy child. I don't know if I need to get him in there. He was left out of the will.
Oh god. I almost sat and watched an episode of that the other day. There are a couple of those episodes of Succession you could watch just standalone. I do that with shows. I started to rewatch it. I'm just slow because I never end up watching a lot of TV, but I'm on the second episode of season two or whatever. Just one of my all-time favorite shows. I think the whole thing is an incredible rewatch. It's just great TV.
It's so good. It's not a funny scene, but I'm laughing anyway for some reason. I just do love Kieran Culkin. All right, Shipley, Salinda, Clark, and then to be determined. I'll find some other guys. I've probably got to shop on them.
And then some DFS names I liked. Doug Ghim got steamed in the markets, and he's probably chalky, but he might just be good chalk in DFS at ninety-four hundred. You're getting a Corey Conners price on him. Corey Conners is another one where it's like, hey, maybe don't put those two in the same lineups, but they're both decent chalk. It sits right below the big price stuff you can build around. I mentioned Chan Kim as a bet. He's like seven thousand. If you want a course history punt at a cheap price, he's decent. Same thing with Kevin Roy, and I think that's why he's popular with some other places that talk betting. He's finished top twenty here in both of his two starts, and he's seventy-five hundred. If you want a guy who's usually projected to finish top twenty, they're usually going to be around eighty-five hundred plus. So, decent. And then Bezuidenhout is one of my model's biggest disagreements with where he's priced in DFS. I think he should be in the eights, mid to high eights, and he's like seventy-nine hundred. I think they have him about a half a stroke per round too low. So he will be a DFS thumbs-up play from Andy.
I would give Christiaan Bezuidenhout a thumbs-down DFS play.
We just go against each other. It's just battle. You crapped on all my outrights.
Seabass doesn't hit it far. Seabass doesn't hit it far.
I'm not looking to win. We don't need to win the tournament. The odds of you picking six guys who win the tournament for DFS, very unlikely.
No, of course. But I'm looking for green in my Seabass stuff. Recent form has been fine. Value. He's like seventy-nine hundred. Once you get to right around seven thousand, you're not going to find a lot of green. I'd rather have Kris Ventura or Pierceson Coody right below him. Ventura is the same price, playing pretty decent golf, and significantly better off the tee with the driver. Pierceson Coody, same thing, bombs it. I don't know. I just think when Seabass wins, you've got to kind of navigate around the greens.
Yeah. Well, for me, I have him pretty high. He's somebody I actually looked at to bet, so I can't argue with Ventura. They're both thumbs up for me. Two thumbs up.
Okay, I'll take it. Keita Nakajima. That's way more exciting to me than Seabass.
Thumbs down. Two thumbs down. Should we start making YouTube thumbnails with us making faces at each other? Does that get more clicks? I don't know.
Oh man, I saw a bad one. The Fantasy Footballers, the OG fantasy football podcast. For some reason a podcast slash YouTube video of theirs came up in my YouTube suggested, and all three of them are on there making, there needs to be a word for that. It's not like the Soyjak meme, but the face that people make.
Yeah, when you make that really crazy face for the YouTube thumbnail. There needs to be a name for that, and it needs to be a slur. It needs to be used derogatorily.
Yeah, it doesn't have to be a bad word, but when you use that word, it has to be used pejoratively. Like, I'm saying this in a bad way because of how you did a thumbnail. And it's funny, because I put Wyndham Clark on the thumbnail, and when I looked him up for images, I typed in "Wyndham Clark mad," because I kind of want to put a picture of him being angry on the thumbnail, just because that's funny to me. So the thumbnail is, I'm sorry. I went on a little bit of a rant there, and I kind of did it by putting him on the thumbnail looking like a jerk.
We keep ours too classy, I guess, with a golfer and whatever. It needs to be you and I. We're more contentious. It gets more clicks. We've got to bow down to the algo gods. That's what makes you click. If you want to grab the wife tonight and do a photo shoot of you, like, worried, shocked, surprised.
Yeah, surrender cobra. I'll go figure out the best ten faces, and then I'll do some really clickbaity thumbnails, where it's like, this is the only guy who can win the golf tournament this week.
Yeah. One name guaranteed to win. Don't click this if you like winning DFS. Do you want to win a million dollars? Click here. We will do some hard clickbait for you.
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Yes. I would like to pick more winners too. I try. I was close two weeks ago.
Boy, we were close. It's hard. It ain't easy.
I can always rest on my Smotherman, though. That Smotherman money is still spending.
That was a big price. A hundred to one. That spends for a while. You've got to live off that for a while.
All right, we'll check you guys next week. Enjoy it. Have fun. And happy Dia de Muertos this Sunday if you are watching the course from Mexico, or if you just celebrate it.