The Betsperts Golf crew breaks down the full 3M Open field, covering the early favorites, the value names worth targeting, and what TPC Twin Cities demands from a player's game. We go through course fit, key stats to target, and where the market may be getting it wrong heading into the week. Whether you're playing a tournament winner bet, building a DFS lineup, or just want to know who to watch, this is your first look at everything that matters for the 3M Open.
Full models, picks, and DFS breakdowns live in the Rabbit Hole. Use code BSG26 for 25% off any Betsperts Golf plan: https://bit.ly/40MZdaD
0:00 Ryan Fox wins the Open, and the 2026 major season in review
1:58 Did Royal Birkdale hold up?
4:07 Bryson DeChambeau's Friday rules penalty and the theatrics
7:52 The range-session drama and threatening not to play
10:28 Rory McIlroy, media obligations, and the hypocrisy take
11:36 What is next for Bryson (contract, LIV team event)
12:08 Scottie Scheffler's TIO relief and why the rule needs fixing
15:48 Mule season begins, pivoting to the 3M Open
16:16 3M Open odds board (Sharp Stack, 4for4)
21:04 The Rebet and Betsperts Golf subscription deal (promo BSG)
22:36 2027 majors preview: PGA Frisco, Pebble, St Andrews
24:29 TPC Twin Cities course breakdown: water, risk-reward, volatility
28:44 Off the tee: driving accuracy vs distance from edge of fairway
30:38 Approach, greens in regulation, and around the green
33:24 Scoring trends, birdies, and the par 4s and 5s
35:45 Building the model: rolling form, ball striking, tee-to-green
39:16 Wrapping up solo (no Ron) and final Rebet reminder
Betsperts Golf First Look: 2026 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities
Everyone, welcome in to Betsperts Golf for our first look at the 2026 3M Open, coming off of a major championship season that is now in the books.
Ryan Fox. What is not to love about Ryan Fox going out there and absolutely getting it done. Kudos to Foxy for an outstanding weekend of golf. Justin Ray had some good tweets about just how far back Fox was, how much he really was not a part of the coverage for parts of the tournament. We do not have the bandwidth today to cover the coverage properly. You can definitely find thoughts on the coverage on other platforms, and I think a lot of it is fair. It is a tough slate. This is similar to when you do not have a lot of separation and you have a pretty packed leaderboard. It is hard to determine who grabs screen time and who does not. But Fox had a great showing on Sunday and just battled.
I love seeing guys like Ryan Gerard and Ryan Fox, very much swing-your-own-swing kind of golfers. It is definitely not something you would have built in a lab. There are a lot of things people would probably tell you not to do, but picking up the game late and all the stories that have emerged on Fox, he plays quick and is easy to root for.
Kudos to Fox. Ryan Fox, Aaron Rai, and Wyndham Clark are major champions in 2026. Scottie Scheffler is not a major championship winner in 2026, which is kind of crazy. A very eclectic mix outside of Rory at the Masters for our major championship season, and flags fly forever. Those might be their only shot, and good for those guys capitalizing on it.
I thought Birkdale held up. There is always so much discourse coming out of a major, but a 10-under winner with a difficult closing stretch. The 18th had teeth. We saw it bite Cam Young unfortunately at the end there, and it happened to a lot of other guys coming home on all the days. To get a 10-under winner where the course really tested guys was a good result.
By Thursday afternoon and really Friday, you started to see a shift in philosophy off the tee. Some guys had different game plans coming in. With it being so dry and the rough being kind of wispy, it became like a bomber's paradise. You look at that leaderboard late on the weekend and it was a ball strikers, send-it kind of leaderboard. That was not really what we had handicapped early in the week. It did not seem to be what we were hearing from the course strategically early in the week, and it depended on your wave advantage. That was a little bit surprising and a little bit frustrating, but that is what we can run into in major championship season, because we do not see these courses all the time and the way things play out can be tricky to handicap.
Kudos to anyone that had Ryan Fox tickets. I did not see a lot of those out there. Probably some really big numbers if you were just firing down the board and scanning on the weekend to try to grab something big late. There were big numbers out there if you wanted to fade Lucas Herbert, or Jackson Suber was up there. If you wanted to say you did not think Jackson Suber was holding on, those were big numbers. Kudos to anyone that went dumpster diving on the weekend and got themselves a Foxy ticket.
Lots to unpack. I do not have anything fresh to add to Friday afternoon in the theater of Bryson DeChambeau and all of that. I have opinions, and based off other groups I have discussed this with, my opinions seem to be on or close to the popular thoughts here. Regardless of whether you agree with the penalty or not, I thought the theatrics were all pretty heavy-handed. Dragging the rules officials back out, the face and body language, all that stuff was electric theater. Friday afternoon was like peak golf Twitter. It was like the old days, fewer vile comments from people, everyone watching the same thing happen at the same time. From an entertainment standpoint it was incredible. From a decorum standpoint, not my favorite, but I am not here to judge.
By the letter of the rules as written, that is a penalty. With that said, I agree with the pro-Bryson people that it is a rule that is almost never called. The problem is that we have all these different governing bodies at play. The PGA Tour does not enforce a lot of rules that are written very clearly, mainly pace of play. There are a lot of rules that are on the books but not enforced week in and week out. This was not a PGA Tour event, not a USGA event, and not a PGA of America event. It is put on by the R and A, Royal and Ancient. So to say this is not a rule that is enforced often is totally accurate and totally fair. Because Bryson is Bryson, I understand why the Bryson backers would start to scour the internet for other examples of this not getting called.
The reality is the problem is on the tour, because that is what we watch week in and week out. We are going to discuss the 3M in a moment. We are not really grinding and covering the DP World Tour events as closely, which are a different set of rules officials, and while I would think this is probably not called as frequently as it should be on that tour either, we just do not have as big a sample to understand how they enforce a lot of their rules differently than the PGA Tour.
The rule as called does not account for intent. So it is not even a matter of him being a cheater or trying to cheat. I do not necessarily believe that, but as the rules are written, that is a penalty. Would you call it on your buddies on the weekend? Probably not. Would they push back? Probably, and fairly. So I understand why it became what it was.
What I think is really fair on the negative Bryson feedback was the theatrics afterward. Naughty rules aside, the range session and leveraging through your manager that you are not actually sure if you are playing tomorrow. The lip reading was very clear. He had basically said, well, I will just not play tomorrow. And they instantly reacted as if someone had just said, well, maybe I will not play tomorrow. They put their heads down and it was a big pouty baby fest. Meanwhile other people, volunteers and workers, had to stay for the night range session, which I cannot understand. It is a golf tournament, you are volunteering, but it was not my cup of tea. Flat out, I thought it was a lot. It was performative. Yes, Rory is also performative, but I respect Rory for calling him out. He is not a fan, they do not get along, and do not pretend that you get along or that you are going to keep up for him. A lot of other guys played the middle a little bit more, and that is fine. A lot of them had some of the same feedback I am saying here, that picking and choosing when you are going to enforce these things is not really fair.
Russell Henley nailed it, and I thought Scottie kind of nailed it too when he came around yesterday. It is kind of unfair in a way, because Bryson is going to be covered. We are going to see almost every Bryson shot, or at least there is a camera on Bryson for all of his shots, whether they choose to show them all or not. That is not the case for the majority of the field. So you get situations where we can get a feel for how Scottie is playing because we see every Scottie shot, and Bryson is going to have a camera on him for all of his. He might be able to be called for a rules infraction more than Russell Henley or Ryan Fox or whoever, because they have cameras on him. That is not necessarily fair, but life is not fair. That is just kind of the way of it.
I just did not like threatening to not play, holding tee times, which impacted your peers on their planning and scheduling for the next day. These guys are very systematic about their tee time. That dictates when they wake up, breakfast, when they get to the course. Even though you would have a vague idea of where you were, it is just not right. I do not really respect it. I thought it was a little bit much. Just play or do not play. Take it as is and move on.
On the Rory stuff, come to find out people sometimes really are not fans of Rory, and that is fine. I am not even a Rory fanboy. I do think Rory is performative and that it is a little bit much sometimes too. There is a white knight situation. But also, Rory does not have the chance to ever not have a media obligation when he goes to a tournament. The microphone is in his face all the time and he is going to give answers. We hate when we get stock answers from professional athletes, but then we find a guy who will not give you a stock answer and we want to fillet him for it because he is also performative and a white knight. We cannot have it both ways. That is pretty frustrating. We want to encourage these guys to share and then we grill them when they do. Pick a lane. I think there is a lot of hypocritical discussion out there with the way Rory's response was to the Bryson stuff.
So, look, it is gone. I am very interested to see what comes of the next handful of months of Bryson, given that we do not know the dynamics of the LIV team event and all that is going to happen. His contract is up. He ejected anyway on Sunday, which I think helps, because I really was not interested in whether Bryson should have been docked those two shots. That became a non-story in the end.
Then we get into the Scottie temporary immovable object situation. You probably are not watching this on a Monday morning if you did not watch the golf or have an understanding of these situations. Scottie was chasing late and needed a miraculous shot. He hit a poor drive and basically had to go for it off a hill, and absolutely nuked it left into hospitality. Hospitality has different rules, and they all have local model rules depending on the event and where things are placed. He hit it into basically the backyard of the hospitality area. They never actually found the ball, but there were a lot of spectators that pointed to it and knew where it was. It was a TIO, a temporary immovable object. It is not of the design of the golf course, and therefore there is free relief from it. Scottie goes on to birdie the hole and put himself in position where, at the time, he could have birdied, tied with Cam, and gotten himself into a playoff if there would have been one.
Scottie did nothing wrong. TIO stinks and needs to be addressed, and there need to be alternatives. There are a few different alternatives that I think could be done. Scottie knew that if he needed to stay left he could not go right there, because it was death. He had no shot of getting up and down and there was out of bounds and trouble. He knew his only play was to be aggressive and go left, and he knew he had TIO relief if he banged it into hospitality. Now, if you want to say Scottie knew and was strategically going that way, I do not think that is the case. I think he is trying to hit a great shot, but he knew he had that out. That is not on him. The TIO is the problem. He should not be able to get relief.
TIO also means you do not have to find the ball to get that relief. If they know it is in the area and deem it was in the area, they do not have to find the ball. Scottie was waving them off from finding the ball, which is kind of a bad look, because that could have slightly changed where the rules were and you might not have been able to get relief. So that is knowing the rules and taking advantage of it. I do not necessarily have a problem with what Scottie did. I think the TIO situation is the issue. You see guys basically backstop things. You can absolutely air mail it behind a hole off the banking and get relief. There needs to be a drop zone or some more parameters. These governing boards need to get together and figure some stuff out on the TIO side. It was a very interesting finish, because it could have put him in position to get into a playoff.
That is enough discourse on Royal Birkdale and the Open Championship. We are in mule season now. We have pivoted from Open Championship season to this three-tournament stretch, the 3M, Detroit, and the Wyndham, where you might not see some guys. I do not know exactly what we have for Detroit yet next week, but I think it is a decent field too. And this is actually good, Scottie is in this field.
Let us take a look at the odds board here, courtesy of Sharp Stack, my friends over at 4for4. You should check out Sharp Stack if you have not already. Outstanding products: EV betting, bet tracker, arb tool, track sharp money. Great stuff, including a fantastic free odds board. You can shop the winner market.
Scottie is in this field currently. It is interesting that he is here, coming off back-to-back weeks in Europe. He is on the bandwagon as high as +290. There are some 3-to-1 numbers out there. If you shop around, I think bet365 has him at 3-to-1 and enhanced. Kurt Kitayama is here as well, around 22-to-1. Maverick McNealy and Keith Mitchell are short of 30. Jackson Koivun opening up at 30. Jake Knapp is highest at 32 and change. Tom Kim at 35. Pierceson Coody. Then we drop down to a tier around the 50s: Coody, Ghim, Jordan Smith, Sungjae Im, Corey Conners, Ben James, a big 50 tier. Down to Sam Stevens, Max Homa, Michael Brennan, Mac Meissner around 60. Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen coming off a nice finish there at 60 as well. Davis Thompson and others all around 60 to 65. You are going to get big numbers, and this is the full market, not the without-Scottie market. We will get those rolling out pretty soon on a Monday morning.
So look for those and decide what you want to do. Do you want to take on Scottie? Do you want full-Scottie markets, or anything that maybe Scottie withdraws? I would expect him to be here at this point, but we will see. Pretty miraculous that Scottie was unable to make anything basically all weekend and still found himself in position, TIO aside. He did not make a putt over five feet on Saturday, which is insane.
Decide what you want to do Monday morning, and shop around obviously. It is a with-or-without-Scottie market week. If you have options like Rivers or bet365 to look into the each-ways, maybe that is a way to approach it this week. It is an important factor before you even jump into any of the specific names.
Let us look at the tournament cheat sheet here at Betsperts Golf, if you want a sense of rolling form and who is playing best. Shout out to Stefano Mazzoli, who took down Corales, the alt event, and kind of came out of nowhere. Good for him. He is in this field, as is Ryder Cowan. So a small sample of guys, but you can mess around with this. Look at the rolling form, who has been playing the best of late, and get their recent form and finishing positions. You can look at the Corales guys that popped and are in the field here, or the best guys from the Open Championship and how they performed. We have popped in the actual tournament for the recent form.
Then look at course history: who has played the best here at the 3M over the last couple of years. We are coming off a Kurt Kitayama win here. He was T-6 the year before. Sam Stevens has played pretty well here, with two top-10s in the last three years. Pierceson Coody was T-3 here last year. Jake Knapp was T-3 in his debut. You can go down the board and get a sense of who has played the best here from a finishing-position standpoint. You can jump into the Rabbit Hole and look at strokes gained and all those different things as well.
Let us look at the course-stats page. If you are a new Betsperts Golf subscriber, first of all, we appreciate it. If you are not, we start here, and you guys should be, because we have a new deal that deserves your time and attention with our friends over at Rebet.
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I am just getting started. This is kind of the research show. First I am going to show you how the course is going to set up, talk about the field, and talk about what stats we should be looking for. Plays will go to subscribers first, as always, through our Discord at Betsperts Golf. I will put up an article typically Monday night or Tuesday morning with a breakdown on why I made the bets I made. And Andy and I will do it here on the channel tomorrow at 11 a.m. Eastern, so come back tomorrow for my bets and Andy's bets. We will go a little bit more step by step.
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TPC Twin Cities, a very interesting course. Par 71, 7,400 and change from the tips. We are up in Blaine, Minnesota. Andy will have boots on the ground this week too. Andy always goes out there for the 3M local event. It is a kind of unique track. It is not a birdie fest in the sense that there is some trouble out here. There is as much water damage here as anywhere, and by damage I mean your scorecard is damaged by throwing the ball in the water and making some double bogeys. There are a lot of birdies to be had, so if you are dialed with your ball striking you very much can have a mid-20s winner here. But there is a lot of water on the finishing stretch, so I think it is an interesting limp-in-a-little-weaker and then come-in-live-on-the-weekends spot, because you can see a lot of volatility on the leaderboard even on Sunday afternoon because of the water and the finishing stretch.
It is not an interesting course from an architecture standpoint. It is pretty boring, and a lot of the holes look the same. It does have a Florida golf feel, even though we are looking at a Minnesota course. It is lined by neighborhoods and a ton of homes, so it is not aesthetically pleasing. They all kind of blend in. But the golf can be interesting, because someone can go nuclear and throw up a really low number and then get themselves in trouble the next day. I like it as a live-watch, live-bet kind of situation.
You see here, bent grass fairways, bent grass greens. They will run them a little fast. It is average here, but sometimes they tell you how pure they are and how they are running pretty quick, so we will see what the weather looks like and how that impacts things. Fairly easy ball striking test, but mixed off the tee. Last year played a little bit easier.
If you want to break things down, your corollary courses are some of the other TPC courses, which makes sense, along with tracks like PGA National, which have a little bit more water, and the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass, which has more water there too. Other courses with a lot of water where you can get in trouble if you are finding the water off the tee. For the most part, the ceiling is kind of weak, and you get absolute ball striking mavens that can separate. But you can see there are some double bogeys that are a little higher than normal here because of the water. Like I mentioned, the finishing stretch, 14 through 18, there are some big three-plus double-bogey numbers for some of these holes. A lot of risk-reward in the par 5s. The par 3s are tough and longer, 200-plus. The par 5s have a lot of decisions: am I going for the green, am I playing aggressively? You do not necessarily have really large eagle rates outside of the 12th, and the 18th depends on what you are looking to do on the scoreboard. There is three-and-change on eagles and almost a 5 percent double-bogey rate, which makes for an interesting watch and speaks to the volatility.
Off the tee, driver usage ticked up a little bit last year, and the field strength was a little bit better too. Driving accuracy is more of a distance-from-the-edge-of-the-fairway type of week. For the first-time watcher, listener, and viewer, I appreciate it very much. Subscribe to Betsperts Golf wherever you listen to podcasts. We are here on the YouTube channel as well, so thumbs up the video.
Driving accuracy is a binary stat, a yes or no. Fairway hit yes, fairway hit no. We saw it in play a little bit at Royal Birkdale. Driving accuracy and fairways hit is not a great measurement of controlling your golf ball, not a real measure of what was trying to happen there, because there was not a huge penalty for just rolling into the first cut. That does not tell me much. Did you hit a foul ball, like Scottie? That was his second shot, but you know what I mean. Did you absolutely blast one into the water or the woods, or did you hit a good shot that just rolled as the fairway trundles left to right and you rolled into the first cut? Those grade the same but impact golf very differently. I will always beat the drum for the importance of looking at a player-level distance from the edge of the fairway. It tells a much more important story about your likelihood and propensity to hit foul balls. It tells me that when you miss, your misses are less costly than others.
You can see someone with decent driving accuracy numbers, but their distance-from-the-edge-of-the-fairway number is not good, and that tells you their misses are bad. That is where you can get some really big scores. In a place like this it is not just a missed fairway, not just playing out of the pine straw. You could be in the water, it could be a penalty stroke.
Excuse me, sorry, by myself here, so water breaks and cough breaks are a little harder to sneak in.
Approach is pretty flat in terms of proximity, which I will show you, but pretty easy greens in regulation. Even in the down years, over the last couple of years you see right around 73, 74, almost 75 percent greens in reg last year. It is easy greens in reg. So we could filter for above-average greens in reg from the rough, which again means keep the ball in play and do not hit a foul ball. Going for the green percentage is where a lot of the rest of it comes into play this week. You have to make those decisions on your approach shot. You have a lot of water in play off the tee, but you also have, especially on the fives, a decision based on where you are and what number you can get and what is going to happen with the water. So guys go for it above average and hit the green and make birdies at a higher rate. It is kind of the perfect risk-reward. There is reward for executing a high-risk shot, and there is also trouble for not executing when the risk is high.
On the approach-shot distribution, there are no buckets in my opinion that we need to be looking at more from a proximity standpoint. It is fairly flat. There is nothing significantly more. You see a tad bit more from the 175 to 200 range, but that is not something I am going to put in a model and weight heavily. That would be a player-to-player situation. Around-the-green play is not something I am looking at this week, when we have such a high greens-in-reg rate and birdies on the menu at such a high rate. If I am trying to highlight high-ceiling DFS players, and highlight who I think can win, T-5, T-10, I need to be looking at ceiling. So I have to naturally think you are going to be hitting greens in reg at an above-average rate, and I am not really looking for anyone that can get it done around the green. The around-the-green play gets tied up in the tee-to-green play, which matters significantly this week. So ball striking and tee-to-green. You have to get it done around the green, but I am not isolating anything specifically to say this is a specific demand. Like last week, where we needed to look at around-the-green proximity from short grass because we knew we were going to get a lot of that, with small greens difficult to hold and firm and fast conditions, and we saw that play out. Nothing to pinpoint from around the green this week. It will tie into the green stuff.
Putting, you can see three-putt avoidance is typically kind of flat to PGA Tour average. Same thing here, three-putt avoidance. These are decent-sized greens, but nothing here that I think we need to look at.
Scoring in particular. Scoring average, last year we played par 71 over two shots under par on average, which was a little bit easier than the last handful of years. It has typically been right around a stroke over the last five years. But birdies are out there. Last year we had a 26 percent birdie-or-better rate, which is around 5 percent above a standard PGA Tour event. From the fairway, same thing, a little bit more than 5 percent above a PGA Tour event.
Bogeys were down last year. Guys kept the ball out of the water a little bit more. Some low scores early, but I do not think there is anything actionable in terms of early rounds. AM/PM stuff will be weather-dictated more than anything. Guys handled the par 3s a little bit better than they typically had. Last year you saw a slightly higher birdie rate on the par 3s, which speaks to stuff I was a little surprised about.
Here are some of the easier par 4s on tour from a birdie-or-better rate. They play under par, and the birdie-or-better rate on par 4s is a little over 21 percent last year. You see Kitayama won last year at 23, but you had a ton of guys, six guys at 20. Birdies were out there, but you could see a separator. Other than Sam Stevens, who did a tremendous job putting and around the green, there were a lot of really strong tee-to-green performances from the field here.
If you search by tee-to-green: Ben Kohles could not make a putt, surprise. Ben Kohles could not make a putt. He finished 20th, but was second tee-to-green, and for the most part he was up with the top guys. Thomas Rosenmuller, 25th, but could not make a putt. Otherwise you see a lot of guys. Doug Ghim, that is par and parcel for Doug Ghim. But again, a lot of really strong finishes with guys that got it done tee-to-green here, which tracks and makes sense.
Let us take a look at my model. You guys do not need to see the whole thing right now, but I will show you what happened. Scottie is doing well in my model. Ben Kohles is doing well in my model as well. Some of the things I looked at: rolling form, just the last six months, who is playing the best. No surprise, Scottie getting a 95 in the model. This is a 1-to-100 score, basically a percentile score. You see the gap between Scheffler and Tom Kim, who is next in the model at 83.4 percent. So Scottie is separating.
Next in the model, I am looking at easy scoring conditions, so I ruled out anything difficult or very difficult over the last 12 months, and who has done well there. Looking at ball striking, I think similar settings. This is actually ball striking with high water danger. There is not a lot of it on tour, so I had to go back a little bit and only gave it 5 percent. But again, just who can keep themselves in play and who gets themselves in trouble. This is a combination of driving accuracy, so I am looking at total driving, which is a combination of your driving distance and driving accuracy, because you need a little bit of distance here too. Distance played itself out in previous leaderboards. And then I am looking at distance from the edge of the fairway, which I will talk about over and over again. This is the last six months, and this is two years with high water danger. I am trying to look at when the test is similar to this, how are you handling yourself from a distance-from-the-edge-of-the-fairway standpoint. And then just overall, how accurate are you off the tee.
So these three metrics are basically combining good drivers and accurate drivers. At times like this, I think it is okay that you just scan down. You can see this is why Ben Kohles is up here high in the model. He is also playing really good golf, to be fair. You can see who has got green across the board. Joel Dahmen keeping the ball in play off the tee. This is the way I like to use it too. Corey Conners, I know that checks out, he is going to keep the ball in play off the tee. Lee Hodges likes these mule events, keeping the ball in play off the tee. That is a way to leverage it when you scan through after you build the model.
Then we did some scoring metrics, birdie-or-better rate. I am looking at putting, strokes gained total, a combination. This is just real recent form, the last 12, who is bringing in short-term recent form. This is why you get again some Scottie, Tom Kim, and Ben Kohles here at the top, who are just playing well right now.
Ball striking is kind of a super metric. This is a pretty decent sample of looking at how I think the course is going to play. Approach. And then I am looking at a couple of different tee-to-green buckets, last three, six, and then last 12 tee-to-green. The approach bucket is just rolling 24 rounds. I really try to not overfit too much, except for a couple of these specific buckets. But I want to look more than anything at recent form and who is playing the best.
I like to look at this and search by DraftKings salaries when these come in a little bit later today, to get a sense of who is emerging a little bit higher than where they are currently on the odds board. So that is where we are for the 3M.
I appreciate everyone hanging out with me today, running solo. Again, no Ron. Ron is traveling. He needs some days off, needs some vacation. You will get all of Ron's content on the site as always, but no show this morning for Ron as he is traveling.
So again, check out the Rebet deal, guys. It is a great deal. Ten bucks at Rebet, promo code BSG. When you sign up, they will send you an email and you will get instructions on how to sign up for Betsperts Golf for no charge. You can build your own model. You can go on the site and use wisdom of the crowd to get a sense of models that Pat Mayo is building, Ron is building, Andy is building, and other people in the space doing great content. Find out what they are doing, see if there are any other names calling to the top, and make your bets from there.
So thumbs up on the video before you take off. We appreciate it as always. We will be back on Tuesday.