Canada's national open brings out a wide open field and finding the right price before the market figures it out is exactly where the edge is this week. The Betsperts Golf crew breaks down the full RBC Canadian Open field, covering the early favorites, the value names worth targeting, and what Hamilton Golf and Country Club demands from a player's game. We go through course fit, key stats to target, and where the market may be getting it wrong heading into the week. Whether you're playing a tournament winner bet, building a DFS lineup, or just want to know who to watch, this is your first look at everything that matters for the RBC Canadian Open.
0:00 - Memorial Recap, JT Poston Wins, Golf's Longest Day
0:01:30 - RBC Canadian Open: Year Two at TPC Toronto
0:02:00 - Why Bombers Win Here and How to Approach the Wedge Edge
0:05:44 - Odds Board Overview: Fleetwood, Fitzpatrick, Burns, Clark
0:07:00 - Morikawa Health Watch and What to Make of His Price
0:08:00 - Nikolai Hojgaard, Wyndham Clark, Brooks Koepka Value Case
0:10:00 - TPC Toronto Course Profile and What Last Year Taught Us
0:14:00 - Why Driving Distance Is the Primary Handicapping Filter
0:18:00 - Last Year's Leaderboard Deep Dive: Fox, Burns, Cam Young
0:20:00 - When the Bomber Narrative Gets Over Leveraged in DFS
0:22:00 - Rolling Form: Wyndham, Eric Cole, Aaron Rai, Sam Burns
0:28:00 - Model Breakdown and Who Separates at the Top
0:36:00 - Where the Model Bunches and Finding Value Lower Down
First Look: 2026 RBC Canadian Open. Who Wins in Canada?
Everyone, good morning. Welcome to Betsperts Golf. Ryan Noonan here for a little first look at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open. TPC Toronto, coming off of a fantastic weekend of golf and trending into a fantastic week of golf.
Today is golf's longest day, if you're not familiar. There are ten U.S. Open qualifying sites, actually nine around the country and then one in Canada, which makes sense, hosting U.S. Open qualifying. It's the last chance for some guys to get in, outside of a really solid performance or even a win here in Canada. It's the last chance for a lot of people to punch their ticket. Wall-to-wall coverage, I think, on the Golf Channel, so a great day for golf, coming off of a fantastic Memorial.
As always, kudos to J.T. Poston. It's a huge, life-changing win for someone like that. It's awesome to see. It really secures his schedule and bags for the next handful of years, so really cool. And obviously Nelly winning at Riviera on the ladies side for the women's LPGA U.S. Open, awesome. Getting Riv on the TV in June is a treat and a delight. Being on the West Coast, you can kind of multi-view it for a little bit there and then shift in once Poston didn't seal the deal at the Memorial. And then again, we're a week away from Shinnecock Hills and the men's side for the U.S. Open. So a nice little piece on the golf schedule here this week, and hopefully the RBC Canadian Open delivers as well.
So year two of TPC Toronto. Last year we were flying blind a little bit, felt like we had a feel for it a little bit, and it's tricky when we have these situations where we don't know, where we haven't seen pro golf on that course. I think there are one or two ways to do it, kind of spread in terms of stylistic golfer archetypes and cover yourself a little bit. But last year felt like a bomber's card, and I built a bomber's card, and we got home with Ryan Fox as a bomb. So I think you can get away with not being a bomber here, but your wedge game has got to be pristine. It's such a huge advantage to be able to push it out there on this pretty long par-seventy. So I still think that's probably the best way to go about it.
Now, again, we only have one year of data. So I think there might be an edge, maybe even in DFS, where I think you'll see some ownership driven up, especially down, say, mid-sevens and below, on guys that can hit it far. I think there might be an edge in finding some wedge guys, some guys that can keep the ball in play off the tee and give themselves a lot of really good birdie looks with solid, say sub-one-fifty proximity and approach stuff. But from an outright standpoint, I'm still going to lean pretty heavily on bombers here.
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All right, let's look here first at the odds board and kind of see who's in the field, courtesy of our friends over at 4for4 Sharp Stack. A great resource if you love betting on sports, lots of different cool tools in Sharp Stack, including an odds board. Let me see if I can slide these over so we can take a look at what we have. Pretty decent field, considering some guys just like to play the week before a major, and again, that's the case. Those guys are here, and they are playing before we go to Shinnecock.
So Tommy Fleetwood, very much in the mix last week at the Memorial. He's here, roughly around twelve to one best price. Matt Fitzpatrick here as well, same number, best to market on Fitz right around twelve. Sam Burns, again, also very much in contention, was in contention here last year, was in contention last week at the Memorial, as long as fifteen. Collin Morikawa. Don't know what to make of Collin Morikawa right now. Twenty two in this field probably feels long, but I feel like there's like baby bump stuff going on. I don't know if he is, again, we don't get a lot of reporting on this stuff, and also it's theoretically none of our business, but I know that the Morikawas are expecting. I don't know where his game's at, I don't know what's going on with Morikawa, but right now, twenty two.
Bobby Mac is as high as twenty five. Wyndham Clark, absolutely fantastic, seems like he's got it back. Wyndham Clark, twenty five, best in market right now. Brooks Koepka, twenty eight. Justin Rose is here as well, twenty eight. Kristoffer Reitan, again, in contention a little bit last week at the Memorial, playing really good golf, as high as thirty two. Shane Lowry showed up well on the weekend at the Memorial, thirty two as well. J.T. Poston, there's some bigger numbers on Poston. I haven't even seen if he's WD'd here. I think he probably has, because again, he was going to be playing today in the U.S. Open qualifying, because he did not have his ticket punched to Shinnecock Hills, but now he does, and has lots of exemptions over the next handful of years. Good for him.
Nicolai Hojgaard here is highest. Michael Thorbjornsen as well, right around thirty five. Hovland, thirty five. Noren, thirty six. Keith Mitchell at forty. Alex Fitzpatrick, forty three. Harry Hall, Jacob Bridgeman, Aaron Rai, Ryan Fox, Eric Cole, Nick Taylor, Michael Brennan, Sahith Theegala, all kind of right around fifty. It's a pretty big tier there. And then you start to drop off a little bit. You got some of the Canucks at some bigger numbers. Taylor Pendrith as high as sixty. Corey Conners, excuse me, as high as seventy five, which is a big number for Conners, but he's kind of been in the wilderness a little bit. I dug in a little bit on the Conners thing, and it's not pretty. Grace from in here, playing pretty good golf. So, interesting fields, and a course where we do think distance is going to matter.
Let's take a look a little bit about what we have. Again, single year sample here of what we saw at TPC Toronto, Osprey Valley North Course. Again, hilarious that it's TPC Toronto. Obviously the locals, Mayo and company, will tell you it's hilarious that it has the TPC Toronto name, because it's a solid hour north of Toronto, with traffic. But again, Golf Canada has relocated their headquarters there, it makes sense, and this is year two. I think they only had a two-year contract, so I don't know what they're doing next year. Maybe it comes back. We did have a little bit of a Canadian Open rotation. And again, the Canadian guys would tell you there's probably some lovely golf in like Western Canada. Like, get out there, get out to the Rockies, let's get out to Banff, let's get out to Alberta and British Columbia. I want to see some cool tracks out there. Obviously, logistics can be different, but especially now we have to go. You wouldn't want to necessarily go to British Columbia and then have to come all the way back to the East Coast next week when we have the U.S. Open. So I get it. But selfishly, new schedule and stuff, let's explore Canada a little bit, let's see some new things.
Anyway, it's a long par-seventy, almost seventy-four hundred yards. Again, par-seventy, so we have some long par-fives on the scorecard. Played easy last year, look at the scoring conditions, I think it played at least a stroke and a half under par. Not a lot of water danger, not a lot of bunkering. Green speeds are pretty average, in terms of green size. We have bent fairways, bluegrass rough, a little bit on the longer side. It was driver heavy. We saw, I think, over eighty percent driver usage, and again, we'll show it to you. It's an easy ball striking test, so you can see here, it was easy to gain, very easy to gain off the tee, very easy to gain on approach. So while missing the fairway was penal, overall, I mean, it slightly says average, it was easy to hit the fairways. So, again, fairly easy ball striking test. For the most part, scrambling, everything was fairly on the easy side. The only thing that kind of punched back a little bit, I guess, would have been lag putting. Some deeper putting seemed to be a little bit difficult.
Again, I could show you some of those numbers. Some of the corollary courses have been some of the other Canadian Opens, Oakdale, Hamilton, and we get into Quail again. You're going to get into maybe some longer par-seventies. Again, when you start to see Detroit, Craig Ranch, Mexico, TPC Twin Cities, Philly Cricket played a little bit more difficult, but again, it was a par-seventy, a little bit longer. So that's where you start to get some of the correlation there. Yeah, tricky to see one year of data.
So for the most part, you can see we start with a par five, and you got to get a birdie out of the gates. Fifty eight percent birdie rate on the first hole. So just one par, you bookend it, you get one to start and you get one to finish. And again, we saw that eighteenth hole a lot because we had a playoff here that went back and forth, so we had a lot of looks of that playoff hole, that eighteenth hole. So birdies to be had out there. Some of the longer par fours here, too. A bunch of par fours north of five hundred yards. A couple that they could set up to be drivable, both on the front and the backside, the twelfth hole, and then I believe it was the other one, the sixth hole, a little bit of a shorty too. So you could see some guys being a little bit aggressive there.
But here we are, off the tee. We saw driver usage, yeah, eighty one and a half percent. So significantly above a PGA Tour average event at seventy percent. Accuracy was above that as well. Good drives. So, again, keeping yourself in play, give yourself basically, it's a little bit of a combination of approach and performance off the tee, so that was a little bit easier than tour average. We'd see most of the misses, you could see a little bit of a right tendency lean versus a left tendency lean. Again, could be really noisy, just the one year sample of data, to see if there's anything in that. Again, I'm not typically leaning and doing any research in terms of right tendency or left tendency, but if it starts to show itself as a year-over-year trend, then maybe we can look at exploiting that next year. But I wouldn't make too much of it, it just caught my eye because we don't typically see that much of a gap.
You get into the approach stuff, you can see greens in reg was high again, seventy two percent versus a standard event at sixty six percent. Again, up from the fairway, pretty flat from the rough. Overall proximity is a little bit tighter. Again, you'll see that kind of play out in the approach shot distribution range here, which we have, again, overall slightly below in terms of distance, about five yards shorter on average. And you can see that play out here in your total from fifty to one twenty five, about five and a half percent higher, and your total from one twenty five to one fifty, same thing, about four percent higher.
So you have roughly, again, it'll vary based off of player, but roughly forty seven percent of your approach shots coming from less than one fifty. And where we see most of the distribution on a standard PGA Tour event, in the one fifty to one seventy five and the one seventy five to two hundred, those are both sizably below a PGA Tour average event. So again, one fifty to one seventy five is typically twenty percent. Last year here, it was below thirteen percent. One seventy five to two hundred is right around nineteen percent, and that was around twelve last year. So some of the guys that you're looking at, rolling approach, you could have a guy that's playing really well, but a lot of his work comes from these longer approach ranges, and that isn't necessarily what gets rewarded here. We just don't get as much of that. So we do have a decent amount of two hundred plus, slightly above a standard PGA Tour average, and most of that is actually right here in the two hundred to two twenty five range. So it's not even like a lot of real long ones. Those are actually a little bit slightly, again, two twenty five to two fifty. When you get into the two fifty plus stuff, that's actually a little bit below average. So that can be tied up into some of these little bit longer par threes. Again, we got a shorty in the par threes, but the other three, I think, are decent size.
So I am wanting to look a little bit at wedge play. I'm going to look at approach stuff. I'm not modeling wedge play in particular, but I want to look at it, I put it in my model. And that's something you could do too. You could put stats in your model process, you just don't have to give it any weight. But if you want to look at it and say, like, these are the stats that I think are really important, but I also want to look at this piece of it too when I'm making some start-sit decisions or final betting card decisions. That data is all there for you, you don't have to go back and forth in the Rabbit Hole. So I can show you what I did with that too.
Around the green play, again, when you have scoring this low and when you have greens in reg this high, I'm not getting too caught up in around the green play, because I just don't find it to be super-duper predictive in terms of trying to pick a winner, because again, I think you've got to be hitting greens in reg at a pretty high rate. So you talked about putting being a little bit harder from the longer putts. And again, you see a little bit lower one-putt rate, a little bit higher on the three putts from twenty five plus, but again, negligible, and again, that could be just a single year sample. So be sure to see where that tracks. I'm not counting that too much in any modeling here.
So you can see, PGA Tour average scoring at seventy and a half. Last year we were at sixty eight point seven five here. Birdie or better rate a little bit higher, higher from the fairway, a little bit below average on the rough. But you need to score here, you got to get it done. Let's look from a strokes gained standpoint on the leaderboard and see how people got it done here. You see we had the Burns/Fox playoff. I was driving home from Nashville and making my wife watch live on her phone to keep me updated on the Fox and Burns playoff, which was electric. So that felt good. Long weekend in Nashville paid for by Ryan Fox. Thank you so much.
You can see here, this kind of goes into the around the green play. No one towards the top was doing much of anything around the green. It really didn't matter. I think you needed to really get it done tee to green, ball striking in particular. For the most part, those guys up here, unless you were like just starting to putt your face off. This is where we started to really start to see this new version of Cam Young, too. He had that momentum off of qualifying on Monday. It was the longest day, in that five-man playoff. He took that seat, rolled it over to a nice weekend in Canada, and kind of took off from there. No looking back for Cam Young. But you could see a lot of these guys are getting it, a lot of distance here with Fox, Burns, you, and Cam.
Ben An was in here getting it done. You could see an Andrew Putnam, not long, played really well from an approach standpoint, made a whole bunch of putts. David Skinns, not super long, but then you get a Cam Champ popping up here, Ludvig, but Shane Lowry is not long off the tee. So, again, I think I would lean distance, but I also do think that there's some leverage opportunities, both in the outrights, both in finishing positions, and definitely in DFS, where I think the bomber narrative may be over-leveraged this week, if that makes sense. So don't feel that you have to lock into it. I'm going to model it as being important, but I think, again, we only have one year. We thought it was going to play bombers heavy, it did play bombers heavy. But if you look at this leaderboard, Matt McCarty's not hitting the ball a mile. Again, Putnam, Shane. There's some good golf to be played for guys that are not necessarily just bombing it out there.
Let's take a look at some of the stuff in the Rabbit Hole. Actually, I'll pull up my model, and we'll go from there. Let's see, I want to show you, we'll look at rolling averages to start. These guys are playing well right now, strokes gained total. Last eight rounds, Wyndham Clark's kind of leading the pack here for the most part for the last little bit. Eric Cole's playing really good golf, I mean, this is really solid. Last fifty rounds it feels a little bit recent with Eric Cole, but it's actually not, you can see the data here, he's fifth in strokes gained total here the last fifty rounds. So he continues to knock on the door, did it again last week. Aaron Rai, obviously getting a nice little bump off of playing well in Myrtle and then winning. PGA Championship, Burns, he's been playing well, and again, one of the class players in the field. Same thing for Tommy.
Zac Bauchou is playing really well. You'd see here over the last twelve rounds, last eight rounds, even the last fifty, thirty rounds. Bauchou is playing really well. Justin Rose can really find it, always impossible to model, because he's just so hot and cold. Can obviously go out and win a major championship, I think none of us would be surprised, but I also have a hard time clicking him at price in these non-signature, non-big events. Steven Fisk playing well, last twenty, seventh in the field strokes gained total. Kristoffer Reitan, good at the game, playing well, continuing to contend, contending at different styles of golf courses. But again, playing well on longer golf courses, obviously winning at Quail, showing up last week at the Memorial, and we have another long golf course this week.
Alex Noren, steaming up the leaderboard last week as well at the Memorial, playing really good golf. Another guy that doesn't hit it far, but shows up often at longer golf courses. So the number's a little short for Noren, but he's also a very streaky golfer. If you look at Noren historically, he pieces together these just runs of awesome golf, and then he's just in the wilderness for a little bit and he can't find it, and comes back and then he'll just string together really good golf. So he's definitely a form guy, and seems to be currently in some solid form. Keith Mitchell, kind of fine, not necessarily competing or, I guess, top of the leaderboard on late Sunday tee times, not so much, but playing pretty good golf. He's just cash-game-style play for DFS. Rico, Jay Ewart, Johnny Keefer, Michael Brennan, Brooks Koepka, these guys are all playing some really good golf. Jackson Suber playing really good golf.
Yeah, so this rolling trends is nice just to kind of take a look at, hey, can you put some filtering on it if you want? You want to get a sense of who's kind of in some recent form. It's a good way to look at it. I'm going to bring up my model here. You can see, again, you can look at expert models, click in there, and you can get a lot of great sharp models from other folks in the space, if you find that modeling yourself is maybe a little bit intimidating and you don't know how to weigh things, you don't know what stats to put in. Again, that's why we tried to build the player or the course page this way. So it kind of gives you a sense of some different filtering options that you could put on.
And again, I would do one or two filters at a time. Don't go in here and go into the Rabbit Hole and look at, okay, I'm going to look at easy scoring conditions on bent grass fairways with long rough and driver heavy, I'm going to way over-filter it. Start to do some things that correlate together so that you could look at this week. This is easy scoring conditions and a long golf course. Well, maybe look at who's played well, on average easy and very easy scoring conditions, on average long and very long golf courses. So you start to widen your sample a little bit, and they kind of play themselves out together where it makes sense. I want to look at these stats because they kind of tell a similar story. I'm weeding out hard golf tests, I'm weeding out short golf courses. I want to see who's played well when birdies are on the menu and the course is a little bit long.
And then from there, you can maybe look at, okay, we'll look and see who's played well, we go back to like the ball striking test. So it's very easy for both, we often see an approach. We'll look at very easy and easy off the tee and look at very easy and easy on approach, and then see who's played well then. Look at strokes gained total, look at strokes gained ball striking, look at strokes gained tee to green in those scenarios. You're putting a couple things together, but they make sense as a story when you're trying to look at the stats. If you start to just jam too many filters, too many things, too many views, you're going to find yourself with, you know, we get emails like this, I looked at Ron's preview, I looked at all the filters and there's no data. And so when you're looking at a six-month sample with twenty filters, well, yeah, you'd be lucky to find four rounds of that, and that would not be very predictive.
So if you have questions, reach out. It's why we try to do the shows this way, share the screen. Andy and I try to do it on Tuesday the same way. Screen shares let you look at the tools, see how to do it. Hopefully that helps. So that way you can kind of look at, same thing with these course metrics, there's different ways that you can go ahead and look at some things.
So I'm going to bring up my model, and I'll show you a little bit of what I did. Top of my model, Nicolai Hojgaard. Michael Thorbjornsen number two, Wyndham Clark three, Kristoffer Reitan four, Tommy Fleetwood five. So a little off-market, and I kind of like when that happens. Like I don't set out to build a model that's off-market. This is not wildly off-market. I mean, these guys are all right around thirty to one, thirty five to one, Wyndham short of that, Reitan's right there, Tommy's at the top of the board. So these guys are towards the top of the board on the odds board, but I also am trying to find edges where maybe my data is different than where the market is, name value, all those things.
So I like to see the gap of where there's some discrepancy. You can see here I'm leaning on distance. I have both driving and carry. I had this in my model last year, and I think we had some weather here and they played a little soft, so I wasn't really sure what the best way to go about it was, in terms of just pure driving distance or carry distance, because obviously carry, driving distance is going to be impacted by softer conditions, where carry is going to tell more of a pure distance story. You can see that play out here in some of the discrepancies in the numbers for guys too. So like Wyndham hits it high, so his carry distance actually tells a better story in terms of how far he hits it versus his driving distance, because he probably gets less roll, depending on what his loft setting is, right? All these things can impact these things. So I'm looking at both carry and driving. And again, if you want to pick one, that's fine. I still want to weigh it basically around twenty percent.
I have par four birdie or better, but I'm putting on a little bit of long par four, so I'm looking at long and very long golf courses over the last twelve months, who's made some birdies there in those scenarios. Again, par-seventy, we have two fewer par-fives to get your scores in, and again, we were at eighteen under last year. So that's low scoring for a par-seventy where you don't have those extra par-fives. So I really want to see you making birdies on par fours. So we're looking at that here.
I'm looking at a little bit of putting. I looked at, again, five percent collectively for putting, and that's typically the max of what I look at for putting. I'm looking here both at just, again, last six months putting, no filtering, and then I put on the bent/Poa split, the putting surfaces that we have here. And I added solo bent, because it's a little bit more pure and a little bit more like what we have. So, looking at that, and again, who's rolling it well, and who actually rolls it well on this surface.
Then I'm looking at some other, probably some big-picture filtering metrics. Strokes gained total here, this is easy ball striking. So like we talked about, I'm looking at easy to gain on approach, again, easy, very easy on average, and the same thing off the tee. But really, I filtered it out to the last two years, but I'm really looking at the last thirty six rounds. So over the last thirty six rounds, who's been the best in ball striking when the test has been easy? And that's why you get some of the guys here towards the top of the board on the model. Hojgaard, Mac Meissner, Michael Thorbjornsen, Kristoffer Reitan, Johnny Keefer, Michael Brennan, Zac Bauchou, Seabass, Alex Fitz, and Tommy Fleetwood. Those guys have been good. Ball striking when it's been easy, or tee to green, I'm sorry, when it's been easy, right? Is this, oh, this is just tee to green first, I'm sorry. I filtered that wrong. This is what we were just looking at, this was the easy ball striking guys. My fault, I slid it.
Harry Hall, Nicolai Hojgaard, Tommy Fleetwood, Mac Meissner, Sam Burns, Wyndham Clark, Michael Thorbjornsen, Matt Fitzpatrick, Ricky Castillo, and Garrick Higgo are your top strokes gained tee to green. This is just kind of the main thing that I'm looking at, capturing in recent form. This is last twenty four rounds, no filtering, just tee to green, who's playing well right now. And it gets a big chunk of the model because, again, I just want to pull in some recent form. So Matt Fitzpatrick, Kristoffer Reitan, Brooks Koepka, Doug Ghim, Aaron Rai, Alex Fitz, Nicolai Hojgaard, Collin Morikawa, Justin Rose, Wyndham Clark.
This strokes gained total, this is long and easy courses. So I'm looking at the last fifty rounds, I'm basically looking at 2026. Most guys are not giving fifty rounds in the sample, but they're getting roughly twenty four to thirty, which I'm totally comfortable with, on long, very long, and average course length, with easy, very easy, and average scoring conditions. So kind of what I touched on at the top, who's played well under these scenarios, these course conditions? Nicolai, Mac Meissner, Thor, Reitan, Keefer, Brennan, Bauchou, Seabass, Fitz, Tommy.
Looking at long and easy courses last twelve months. So again, kind of the same, but a little bit of a different sample, to kind of reward guys with a longer sample here. Nicolai Hojgaard again, Tommy Fleetwood, Seabass, Thor, Brennan, Mac Meissner, Reitan, Kevin Yu, Rico Hoey, Matt Fitzpatrick. Those guys are all right there.
Strokes gained par four. So I looked at par four birdie, and I want to look at just, we didn't have strokes gained par four last year, but we do now. So I'm looking at strokes gained par four last six months, average, easy, very easy scoring conditions. So again, you got to make hay on par fours here, because we have two fewer of the par fives. And again, you can look at the guys, reverse engineer this, cross some names off who I don't want to look at based off of who's struggling. Brooks, Shane, Paul Waring, Steven Fisk, Alex Noren, Seabass, Bridgeman, Nicolai Hojgaard, Ryan Fox, Sam Ryder, your top strokes gained par four scores here, so far in 2026.
Now here I put in some of these approach shot distribution ranges that we looked at earlier when we were looking at the core stats page. We saw around forty seven percent from fifty to one twenty five or so, and that's significantly above a PGA Tour average. So I have those here, fifty to one hundred, and then one hundred to one fifty. Wedges, who's dialed with the wedges? And then we also have a slightly decent amount from the two hundred plus. So, again, we have some of those long par fives. So I want to look at those things here, but I did not weigh them at all in the model.
Part of it is because what I'm doing here is I'm looking at, when we look at it in the Rabbit Hole, let me show this to you here. And again, I love approach scoring opportunities. This is, if you were an old Fantasy National member, opportunities gained. Opportunities gained was looking at inside fifteen feet for many of these ranges, but what we have here is the ability to look at inside five, inside ten, and inside fifteen. So the tricky part with modeling this is like, if I look here, put a minimum-round filter, get some of these smaller sample guys out. The trick with modeling it, which is a little bit tough, is like, I look here and look at Camilo Villegas, because he's tops. He is giving himself the highest rate of looks inside fifteen feet from fifty to one hundred. Do I really want a high rate inside fifteen feet from fifty to one hundred? I would expect a little bit better, right? Not for us, but for these guys, I would expect them to hit at a pretty high rate.
But because there are some guys that are maybe better at throwing real darts. Like, let's look here. Lucas Glover's been great, Danny Willett's been great, Tosti's been great. Like, Jordan Smith's been awesome, right, getting looks inside five feet. But if I were to model inside fifteen feet, he's not going to get rewarded for that. So I kind of just picked a couple of stats, I hope that makes sense. Because, same thing, if I go to one hundred to one fifty, it's been great for Ekro, but it's been great for him across the board. Doug Ghim has been great here, but not as good down here. So it's really hard, like, unless you're going to put all of them in to model it that way, it gets a little bit tricky. So I kind of looked at, from two hundred plus, I think inside fifteen is great. But we're inside fifty to one hundred, I'd kind of rather you be inside ten feet. So I wanted to look at that, backed out to inside fifteen for here. So it's just hard for me to model it. I wanted to have it on the screen to look at.
So if I can see guys that model well for me, and I can go and look at, oh, these guys are really good, he's a really good wedge player, a really good long iron player, that makes sense. So that's how I built my model this week, at least the first run-through. You see some guys that, look, cross some names off too, and I like to look at this once we get the DFS salaries up. You could sort by DFS salary and see who's an easy name to cross off, or vice versa. Like, this guy is way higher up on my model compared to where he is relative to his peers in DraftKings pricing. Maybe that's a guy that I want to take a look at. Maybe that's a guy I need to be wary of, based off of where his ownership is going to be.
So hopefully that helps a little bit. But a pretty solid edge here. This model score is based on like a hundred percent, so you could see where there are gaps in the model. So you could see here, yeah, Collin Morikawa's eleventh on the model, but it's pretty flat to where he is, point total less than four and change from where Reitan is at four. So this is a very bunched-up group in the model, and that makes sense. Even here, there's not a lot of separation all the way down to Hovland and Noren, down at like twenty-one in the model, from where these guys are right here into like the top five in the model. So it is a hard board to kind of suss through a little bit here on a Monday morning, because there's some guys that I like, some prices that I don't mind, and a lot of guys that I think could fit this course based off of what I think matters here, and based off of some of these players' recent form. So hope that helps.
Appreciate everyone hanging out, as always. Again, enjoy golf's longest day. Let me see, I don't, let me get a little bit of coverage on here too. I see some decent names and some guys that are not in the field this week, like Webb Simpson, Lucas Glover. We got both Presidents Cup captains, Geoff Ogilvy and Brandt Snedeker, trying to qualify. Finau needs to qualify. Potgieter. So you got some of these guys that are in Ohio, but then playing in Canada. Then you've got some guys in the Canadian one, too. Homa. Homa's teeing it up here in Canada this week, and he's going to be at the Canadian qualifier here this morning. Rasmus, obviously, Nicolai is in the field, Rasmus is trying to get himself into the U.S. Open. Ricky Castillo is in the Canadian Open field this week, and is trying to punch his ticket. Kevin Na trying to qualify for the first time in a long time. Blocky's here. Thorbjornsen's trying to get in. Blades Brown. So some interesting names, some guys trying to get in. Bauchou trying to get in. So yeah, a lot of interesting ones here this week trying to get into golf's longest day.
So check it out, should be a good day of golf. So again, appreciate everyone hanging out. As always, subscribe to Betsperts Golf. Promo code Canada. Betsperts Golf for a week for a dollar, that's it. So, BetspertsGolf.com slash plans. Promo code Canada. Check it out for a buck, it's great. You do it a little bit later today on a Monday afternoon or a Tuesday, that week's going to carry into a little bit of next week, get you into a little bit of our Shinnecock coverage for next week's U.S. Open. So check it out. Again, head over to the site, take advantage.
If you have any questions when you're playing around with the Rabbit Hole, hit us up, let us know. Again, we have a ton of other tools as well on the site. DFS Optimizer, Matchup Tool. You want to bet three-balls, head-to-heads, you could put in the odds, we'll give you break-even rates, expected value, to see if there's anything for you to play. Obviously you get access to our Discord, where our staff pops plays in there as well. I know that's hard to tail, outrights from three different guys, and then we may have opposing outrights as well. Fine, but it's there for you if you want it. It could be confirmation bias for guys that you were looking at betting, or you can tell us why we're donkeys. You guys will do that anyway, it's fine. Also, do whatever you want, bet whoever you want, live your life, do your thing. Appreciate everyone hanging out as always, appreciate the support as always too. Again, thumbs up the channel and the video, and I'll be back tomorrow with some more thoughts.